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    → 左岸讀書,一如既往。

    牛人們最常用的7個邏輯思維方式

    2016-01-29 . 閱讀: 42,418 views

    譯者 | 孫少凱(新精英

    也許有不少人會覺得,“說什么邏輯思考力啊,完全沒有意義嘛,思維方式什么的,不都是與生俱來的么?”其實,所謂的思考能力,并不是想想就能鍛煉出來的,更不是說一個人的氣質性格。

    要想更高效地思考,首先要學會站在巨人的肩膀之上,學會借鑒前輩們的智慧經驗,也就是在這里要為大家介紹的的“思考框架”。

    為什么說思考框架是如此的重要呢?

    理由有三:

    一是可以更加高效;

    二是可以大幅減少無效溝通;

    三是可以俯瞰全局整體把握。

    今天,就為大家介紹7個最具代表性的超常用思考框架。

    ①空?雨?傘

    這是最常用的決策模式,“空?雨?傘”,意如其名,也就是說,“抬頭看天,天空烏云密布,像是要下雨的樣子,所以出門時帶上把雨傘吧”。

    這里的“抬頭看天”,是說要看清自己所處的周邊環境,也就是分析自己的外部環境。而由此得出“像是要下雨的樣子”,便是從分析自己的外部環境中得出的自我分析。我們可以看到在這個思維過程中,其視角是從外至內,從大到小。當然,其結果是可能下雨,也可能不下雨。

    我們在此基礎上得出“出門時帶上把雨傘吧”這個結論,思考一下,這里為什么是“要帶上雨傘呢”,原因可能是只有雨傘,也可能是不喜歡雨衣,這些因素都考慮進來,最后得出“要帶雨傘”這一結論。


    其實,不必把這個思考過程想得太過復雜,簡單來說,我們在進行決策時通常會經過這樣的步驟:

    ??空:把握事實和現狀
    ??雨:解釋、預測
    ??傘:行動、提案

    以上就是怎么學會決策,也就是進行邏輯思維的第一步。

    ②5W1H

    5W1H就是我們常說的[who / where / why / when / what / how]。也許會有人覺得這么簡單的東西也能稱之為邏輯思維?!是的,的確是的,因為5W1H所代表的就是最重要的信息。盡管廣為人知,但決不能因此而輕視之。特別是當你想向別人傳達信息時,這個思考框架會發揮極大作用。


    ③用矩陣分析法,將問題視覺化

    矩陣分析法是指畫出橫軸豎軸,將思考因素排列其中,在此基礎上進行分析。比如:PPM分析(product portfolio management),以橫軸表示市場占有率,以縱軸表示成長率,分為四個象限,用來管理產品的生命周期。

    當你遇見很棘手的問題,不知如何下手時,可以畫出相應的矩陣圖來幫助自己分析問題。將實際工作中常用到的關鍵詞,比如滿意度、問題點、活躍度、營業額等,列入數軸之中,分析其中的因果關系。這里為大家介紹兩個常用的矩陣。

    3-1:SWOT矩陣

    分析優勢、弱點、機會、危機,可供決策時參考。

    3-2緊迫性和重要度的矩陣

    將緊迫性和重要度結合起來,不僅可以幫你跟有效地利用時間,在你做優先級排序時,也可以活用這個矩陣。

    ④PDCA

    如圖所示,Plan/Do/Check/Act,也就是在制定戰略時,首先做出假設,然后將制定計劃并付諸實施,再將結果用于制定新的計劃。

    ⑤費米推理(fermi推理)

    所謂的“費米推理”指的是,利用手邊現有的有限信息及知識,推論出很大的答案。

    比如,想知道“日本一年的新車售出量有多少”,通常的做法是google一下,登陸汽車工業會的網站,各個汽車制造商的網站等調查相關數據,但是,如果我們假設沒有這些數據的話,你會怎么做?這里要用到的,就是費米推理。


    思考過程如下:

    首先,日本人口約為1.3億,其中有駕照的人口約為1/3,而這1/3中有自家車的約為1/3。假定一輛汽車的平均使用年限為7年的話,那么,去年換新車的數量約為整體的1/7,也就得出了130,000,000÷3÷3÷7≒2,000,000,也就是自駕車中需要換新的數量約為200萬輛。

    另外,新車售出量中還包括了卡車、拖拉機、商用車等,如果假定這部分的售出量與自駕車的換新數量相同也就是200萬輛的話,得出“日本一年的新車售出量約為400萬輛”的結論,而實際的統計數據是500萬輛。

    在費米推理中,重要的是你從哪里入手思考,以及將如何展開推理論。經常鍛煉自己進行“費米推定”的思維訓練,在有限的時間里,無限接近正確答案,培養獨立思考的能力,進而練就解決問題的能力。


    ⑥AIDMA法則

    AIDMA法則可以用來說明消費者為何會購買某一商品的背后邏輯。

    具體說來,也就是:

    A(Attention讓消費者知道這一商品的存在):認知階段;

    I(Interest產生興趣)D(Desire培養欲望)M(Memory形成記憶):情感階段;

    A(Action實際購買):行動階段。


    ⑦水平思考的六頂帽子

    特意變換視點(=變換所戴的帽子)進行判斷,找出不同點。

    六頂帽子的顏色,依次是:

    ??紅:直覺視點,即根據直覺判斷
    ??藍:思考視點,即根據理性思考來判斷
    ??白:中立視點,即根據客觀資料和數據判斷
    ??綠:創造視點,即創造性思維
    ??黃:樂觀視點,即正向性思維
    ??黑:批判視點,即批判性思維

    小結:怎么樣?有沒有很好地理解了呢?

    這7個看似簡單的思維框架,在日常生活中的應用極為廣泛。大家在思考問題時,一定盡可能地多使用這些基本的思維方式,這樣,慢慢就會培養起邏輯思維能力。

    原文?|?https://careerbaito.com/column/detail/940?

    擴展閱讀牛人們還有哪些思維方式值得我們學習

    左岸

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